Direct3D vs OpenGL

Which API is the best choice for a 3D engine, OpenGL or Direct3D ?

Pros and cons of both API

Here are the drawbacks and advantages of both interfaces :

OpenGL

The main OpenGL drawbacks are rendertarget switching and shity drivers on low end 3D cards. The first problem disappear when we want to render modern shadows: the cards that do not support FBO (FrameBuffer Objets) are also unable to run modern shaders.
But if our product also targets old/slow 3D cards (Geforce <= 4, maybe some slow Geforce FX, Radeons 8500 and under, Intel, Sis, S3...), then these problems become huge negative points. Programming with the ugly PBO and fighting drivers bugs will get really annoying.

Direct3D

Direct3D has a major design problem. It has been developed and optimized at a time when games were displaying few objects, and still today it cannot render a big amount of objects quickly. Each primitive rendering makes the CPU switch from protected mode 3 (applications) to level 0 (Os kernel), which causes a stall.
If in a fps or in 3dmark, that's no problem (as they are few objects, each object having many triangles), it gets very painful in RTS (many units) or in a 3D SimCity-like (many different buildings which may be animated).


To fix that, an extension has been provided in Direct3D 9 : instancing, which make it possible to display several times the same object at different positions. But this is useful only when an object is repeated often and when all instances are exactly at the same moment of its animation. Plus it does not work on older cards.

The only solution is to animate vertexes on the CPU, and to generate each frame a meta-object that contains all the small objects using the same texture/shader.

D3D10 and above actually fix that.

Conclusion

Is the perfect solution to use OpenGL-ES, which is "OpenGL light" containing only the main most useful features and which is far easier to implement on 3D cards?

Update on October 2008

An interesting link: OpenGL 3 & DirectX 11: The War Is Over on tomshardware.com.
Also, debugging tools make the balance lean heavily toward D3D.

Side note - quick comparison of PC vs concoles

Today's PC are quite more powerful than Gen3 consoles.
But consoles have some advantage on features that helps programming: